London Property Market Analysis: November 2026

Borrowing has become more expensive in 2026 without the Bank of England moving at all. Bank Rate has been 3.75% since December 2025, yet the average 2-year fixed rate is back above 5%. Flats are already the weakest part of the London market. In Canning Town, residents have been asked to leave five blocks of flats over a structural problem. And the October Budget funded a new first-time buyer scheme that starts in 2027.

1. Mortgage rates: 2-year fixes are back above 5% while Bank Rate sits at 3.75%

• •The 2-year fixed rate at 75% loan to value reached 5.13% in September, up from 3.93% in January: the 5-year fixed rose from 3.94% to 4.98% and the 10-year from 4.47% to 5.34% over the same months. Bank Rate has stayed at 3.75% since 18 December 2025, so none of this came from a Bank Rate change.^[2]
• •2-year fixes now cost more than 5-year fixes: the 2-year rate has been above the 5-year rate every month since March 2026, and the gap was 0.15 percentage points in September (5.13% against 4.98%). In January the 5-year was the dearer of the two.^[2]
• •Three of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to raise Bank Rate in September: the Committee held at 3.75% by 6 votes to 3, with the minority voting for 4%. The minutes note that in financial markets “the perceived probability of near-term increases in Bank Rate had risen.” Consumer price inflation was 3.5% in the 12 months to September, up from 3.1% in August, against a 2% target.^[3][4]
• •On a typical London flat, the monthly repayment is £223 higher than in February: a £430,000 flat (close to the London flat median of £428,000 over the 12 months to June 2026) bought with a 25% deposit and a 30-year repayment mortgage costs £1,757 a month at 5.13%, against £1,534 at February’s 3.97%. That is £2,674 more a year.^[1][2]

2. First-time buyers: with a 5% deposit, a typical flat costs £2,371 a month, and a 2.5% deposit scheme arrives in 2027

• •Borrowing 95% costs 5.70% on a 2-year fix, against 5.13% at 75%: on a £430,000 flat, a 5% deposit is £21,500 and the loan is £408,500. Over 30 years that costs £2,371 a month at 5.70%, up £223 from £2,148 at February’s 4.82%. At 4.5 times income, a common lending limit, the loan needs a household income of about £90,800.^[2]
• •The 95% mortgage guarantee is permanent and has no price cap: since July 2025 the government guarantee behind 91% to 95% loan to value mortgages has been permanently available to first-time buyers and home movers, on homes of any price. It covers repayment mortgages only, not interest-only, shared ownership or shared equity purchases.^[11]
• •Your First Home offers a 20% equity loan with a 2.5% deposit, on new-build homes only: announced in September and funded in the 28 October Budget with £4.7 billion for around 70,000 households in England. In London the household income cap is £140,000 and the price caps are £650,000 in inner London and £500,000 in outer London. The loan is interest-free for five years. Pre-registration opens by the end of December 2026, applications in February 2027 and the first loans in April 2027.^[12]
• •Stamp duty relief covers only one in five London flats in full: first-time buyers in England pay no stamp duty up to £300,000 and get no relief at all above £500,000. Of the 35,869 London flats sold in the 12 months to June 2026, 20.8% sold for £300,000 or less and 64.1% for £500,000 or less.^[1][13]
• •The Lifetime ISA penalty above its £450,000 cap fell from 25% to 20% on 29 October: 55.3% of London flats sold in the 12 months to June 2026 sold for £450,000 or less. From April 2029 a First Time Buyer ISA replaces the Lifetime ISA for new savers, with the same £4,000 a year limit, 25% bonus and £450,000 cap, and no upper age limit.^[1][12][14]
• •Five boroughs had median flat prices under £300,000: Barking and Dagenham (£241,000), Havering (£264,000), Bexley (£266,000), Croydon (£279,000) and Sutton (£293,000), over the 12 months to June 2026. In Barking and Dagenham a 95% loan costs £1,329 a month at 5.70% and needs a household income of about £50,900 at 4.5 times.^[1]

3. Canning Town: residents of five Royal Gateway blocks asked to leave over a transfer slab problem, and the checks flat buyers can make

• •Around 211 households were asked to leave three blocks on 23 October, and by 30 October residents of the other two had been advised to leave: Newham Council says residents of Centurion Tower, St Vincent Court and Sovereign Tower were evacuated at the request of the property management company, and that residents of Thanet Tower and Prince Court have been advised to leave their homes. The council has served dangerous structural notices on the first three blocks, and their residents must not return until further notice. Royal Gateway is a Galliard Homes development of 336 flats in five blocks.^[5][15]
• •The problem is structural, not cladding: the managing agent, Prime Property Management, has said the risk is linked to a transfer slab beneath the three evacuated blocks. Construction News understands that an inspection for a building safety case found the slab sagging and cracked. A transfer slab is a thick concrete floor that carries the columns of the storeys above and spreads their weight onto a different layout of supports below, often over shops or car parks. The Building Safety Regulator says there have been no recorded incidents of a transfer slab causing a building collapse in the UK, though a small number of buildings have needed urgent works for localised structural problems.^[6][10][16]
• •Before the evacuations, Royal Gateway flats that resold had made a median 9.7% over their new-build price: Land Registry records 410 full market value sales of 302 homes in the five blocks since 2016. Of 94 flats bought new and later resold, held for about five years on average, 15 sold for less than they cost. The most recent recorded sale was on 1 September 2026, before the evacuations, so no effect can show in the data yet.^[1]
• •E16 resale flat prices were already falling before the evacuations: the median resale flat in E16 sold for £372,500 in the 12 months to June 2026, down 4.5% on the year before. Including new builds, the E16 flat median fell 6.6% to £435,000, because new builds, which usually sell for more, fell from 57% to 31% of E16 flat sales. Our district map, which averages monthly medians, shows a fall of 11.9%.^[1]
• •Leaseholder protections can cover structural defects, with conditions: the Building Safety Act 2022 counts the risk of “the collapse of the building or any part of it” as a building safety risk, alongside fire. Whether the Royal Gateway defects qualify has not been confirmed, and the published guidance does not say whether temporary accommodation costs are covered.^[7][8]
  • Which buildings: at least 11 metres or five storeys tall, with works completed between 28 June 1992 and 28 June 2022.
  • Where the landlord is, or is linked to, the developer: no leaseholder pays, whatever the lease.
  • Which other leases qualify: those granted before 14 February 2022, where on that date the flat was the owner’s main home or they owned no more than three UK properties in total.
  • What a qualifying London leaseholder pays for repairs: nothing if the flat was worth less than £325,000 on 14 February 2022, and at most £15,000 in total where it was worth up to £1 million.

1. Check the Building Safety Regulator’s register: search by postcode. Buildings of seven storeys or 18 metres and over must be registered before anyone lives in them.
2. Ask for the building safety case summary and the latest fire risk assessment: the building’s accountable person must give summaries to residents, so a buyer usually gets them through the seller.
3. Ask whether the building has a transfer slab: the regulator suggests residents ask the accountable person. Buyers can also ask when it was last inspected.
4. Do not treat an EWS1 form (the external wall fire review) as a structural check: it covers the external walls only.
5. Get the landlord’s certificate and the leaseholder deed of certificate: together they show whether the leaseholder protections apply. Ask your conveyancer for both.

The first three checks apply to new builds bought through Your First Home too. The leaseholder protections do not cover those homes, because they apply only to works completed by 28 June 2022.

4. Across London: prices down 2.3% and flats down 4.3%, with central boroughs falling furthest

• •London prices were 2.3% lower over the year: the average of monthly median prices was £523,000 in the 12 months to June 2026, against £535,000 a year earlier.^[1]
• •January and February 2026 had 10% fewer sales than the same months of 2024: 9,938 against 11,053, and 17% fewer than 2023 (12,039). These months should now be close to fully registered. 2025 is not a fair comparison: buyers rushed to complete before stamp duty thresholds fell on 1 April 2025, and March 2025 alone had 16,590 sales.^[1]
• •Flats fell further than houses: the London flat median averaged £428,000 in the 12 months to June 2026, down 4.3%. Semi-detached houses were up 0.5%, terraced houses down 1.6% and detached houses down 1.3%. Part of the flat fall comes from fewer new builds selling: new builds, which usually sell for more, were 2.3% of London sales against 5.9% a year earlier, and resale flats alone were down 2.5%.^[1]
• •Central boroughs fell furthest: Kensington and Chelsea (£1,085,000, down 14.6%), Westminster (£836,000, down 13.6%), Hammersmith and Fulham (down 9.5%) and Tower Hamlets (down 8.3%). Medians in these boroughs move most with the mix of homes that sell: in Tower Hamlets, new builds fell from 22.6% to 8.5% of sales.^[1]
• •13 of the 32 boroughs with at least 300 sales rose, almost all of them in outer London: the biggest rises were in Redbridge (£520,000, up 6.3%), Harrow (£561,000, up 4.0%), Hillingdon (£511,000, up 4.0%), Kingston upon Thames (up 3.7%) and Barking and Dagenham (up 3.4%). Much of the rise in Redbridge, Harrow, Hillingdon and Barking and Dagenham came from fewer flats selling: their flat medians fell, and their house medians rose by 2.1% or less.^[1]

5. What to watch: the rate decision on 5 November and inflation on 18 November

• •The Monetary Policy Committee announces its next decision on Thursday 5 November, with a new Monetary Policy Report: the following decision is on 17 December. In September the Committee said it “stands ready to act as necessary” to keep inflation on track for the 2% target in the medium term.^[3][4]
• •October’s consumer price inflation figure is due on 18 November: September’s figure was 3.5%.^[4]
• •Your First Home opens for pre-registration by the end of December: the government says it will publish further guidance before the scheme opens.^[12]
• •Royal Gateway residents have no return date: Newham Council says residents of Centurion Tower, St Vincent Court and Sovereign Tower must not return until further notice. We will report what the Land Registry data shows as sales in the area are registered.^[5]

References

1. HM Land Registry. Price Paid Data, to 30 September 2026. BrickIntel analysis of full market value (category A) sales in Greater London.
2. Bank of England. Statistical Interactive Database: IUDBEDR (Bank Rate), IUMBV34 (2-year fixed, 75% loan to value), IUMBV42 (5-year fixed, 75%), IUMBV45 (10-year fixed, 75%), IUM2WTL (2-year fixed, 95%). Quoted rates before fees, to September 2026.
3. Bank of England. Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending 16 September 2026, published 17 September 2026.
4. Office for National Statistics. Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026, published 21 October 2026.
5. Newham Council. Resident support update (Royal Gateway, Canning Town), updated 2 November 2026.
6. Building Safety Regulator. Transfer slabs: guidance for accountable persons.
7. Building Safety Act 2022, section 120: meaning of relevant defect and building safety risk.
8. GOV.UK. Leaseholder protections on building safety costs in England: frequently asked questions. See also Building Safety Act 2022, Schedule 8.
9. GOV.UK. Find a high-rise residential building (Building Safety Regulator register).
10. Building Safety Regulator. Transfer slabs: a guide for residents.
11. HM Treasury. 2025 Mortgage Guarantee Scheme and scheme rules.
12. HM Treasury. Budget 2026, 28 October 2026 (Your First Home, First Time Buyer ISA, Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge). See also GOV.UK, Your First Home.
13. GOV.UK. Stamp Duty Land Tax: residential property rates, including first-time buyer relief.
14. GOV.UK. Lifetime ISA.
15. Galliard Homes. Royal Gateway development page.
16. Construction News. London housing blocks evacuated over serious structural problems, 26 October 2026 (managing agent statement).