Did the stamp duty rush cost London buyers money?

1. March 2025 was the biggest single month in our dataset

Buyers rushed to complete before the stamp duty threshold changes on 1 April 2025. The result was the largest single month of London transactions in our records.

• •London recorded 15,768 transactions in March 2025, more than double the 6,093 in March 2024: the spike was visible across all property types. Flats accounted for 8,381 of those transactions, terraced houses 4,305, semi-detached 2,388.
• •In the three months after the deadline (April to June 2025), London recorded 11,995 transactions against 19,025 in the same period of 2024: a 37% drop. April alone collapsed to 2,445, 58% below April 2024. The rush pulled demand forward and left a gap that persisted through the spring and summer.

2. Flat prices fell in 30 of 33 boroughs between the rush and the end of 2025

The following figures compare flat-specific medians in Q1 2025 (the rush period, January to March) with Q4 2025 (October to December).

• •The London-wide flat median dropped from £451,000 in Q1 2025 to £426,000 in Q4 2025, a fall of £25,000 (5.5%): individual boroughs moved far more. Kensington and Chelsea saw the largest fall, from £959,000 to £765,000 (20.2%). Newham fell from £447,000 to £370,000 (17.2%). Greenwich dropped from £425,000 to £360,000 (15.3%).
• •Only Hillingdon (+0.7%), Bromley (+3.3%), and Camden (+2.5%) held or rose: the remaining 30 boroughs all recorded lower flat medians in Q4 than during the rush. Even boroughs with stable demand through 2024, such as Lewisham (4.3% down) and Merton (3.1% down), recorded lower medians after the deadline passed.

3. Stamp duty saving: £2,400. Price drop: £77,000.

• •Since April 2025, first-time buyers pay 0% on the first £300,000 and 5% on £300,001 to £500,000: before the deadline, the nil-rate band was £425,000 and relief applied up to £625,000.^[2] A buyer completing before the deadline on a £447,000 flat in Newham paid £1,100 in stamp duty. A buyer completing in Q4 2025 on a £370,000 flat in Newham paid £3,500.
• •The rush buyer’s stamp duty bill was £1,100. The Q4 buyer’s was £3,500. The difference is £2,400. The price difference is £77,000. Adding purchase price and stamp duty together: the rush buyer paid £448,100, the Q4 buyer paid £373,500. That is £74,600 less. In every borough except Camden, Bromley, and Hillingdon, the buyer who completed in Q4 came out ahead on the combined cost.

4. The 2-year fixed rate fell from 4.65% to 3.97% in 12 months

• •The 2-year fixed rate (75% loan to value) dropped from 4.65% in February 2025 to 3.97% in February 2026:^[3] the 5-year fixed rate fell from 4.38% to 4.01%. The base rate moved from 4.50% to 3.75%. The charts below show how all three series have moved since 2024.
• •A buyer in Newham borrowing 90% of £370,000 at 3.97% over 25 years pays approximately £1,752 per month: a rush buyer borrowing 90% of £447,000 at 4.65% would have paid approximately £2,270. That is £518 less per month, or £6,216 per year, on top of the lower purchase price.

References

1. HM Land Registry. Price Paid Data. BrickIntel analysis, category A transactions only, flat-specific medians.
2. HMRC. Stamp Duty Land Tax: residential property rates. First-time buyer relief: 0% to £300,000, 5% on £300,001 to £500,000 from 1 April 2025. Previous thresholds: 0% to £425,000, 5% on £425,001 to £625,000.
3. Bank of England. Statistical Interactive Database. Series IUMBV34 (2-year fixed, 75% loan to value), IUMBV42 (5-year fixed). February 2025 and February 2026. Base rate series IUDBEDR.